Fall in remittances from Gulf to APAC countries; impacts ratings

Hyderabad(Hyd): The COVID-19 epidemic & its subsequent effect on the oil market is having a considerable impact on migrant labour & are likely to suppress remittance flows within the Asia-Pacific (APAC) area, Fitch Ratings stated in a record.

The credit-rating agency forecasts at the least 12 percent decline within the remittances within the 2nd half of 2022, as temporary factors fade. Remittances in Jun & Jul saw a robust rebound, specially in Bangladesh & Pakistan(PAK) due to temporary factors that contain migrant labour transferring their own savings in preparation to repatriate house, Fitch recorded.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a main source of remittances for the APAC, has been hit by this dual shocks of the epidemic & oil price-shock. The foreign currency inflows from that migrant labour given a stable source of income for the Philippines (8.Four percent of the GDP), Sri Lanka (Eight percent), Pakistan(PAK) (7.nine percent), Bangladesh (six percent) & India(In) (2. nine percent). Even although remittances account(a/c) for a small distribute of GDP in India(In), it’s the highest recipient of remittances world-wide.

Remittance flows have helped keep current account(a/c) deficits contained by offsetting huge trade deficits. They also give economic benefits to recipient nations. 1st, they help national usage by offering an extra income source to households. As per the Asian Development (devt) Bank (ADB), regarding 14% of households in Bangladesh receive remittance income, 8% within the Philippines, 4% in Pakistan(PAK) & 2% in India(In). 2nd, job opportunities for migrant labour relieve slack in national job markets.

The deterioration in remittance inflows is likely to widen current account(a/c) deficits, helping to higher external financing needs. For nations with fragile external finances, like Pakistan(PAK) & Sri Lanka, the shock to remittances can exacerbate existing problems.